Go to: www.foreclosurecrisissolved.wordpress.com/ for The Middle Class‘s Rebuttal Speech To President Obama’s State Of The Union Address and The letter to The Federal Reserve, How The Fed Can Do More Harm To The Economy. The People’s Economic Recovery Plan is at www.recoverygovforthepeople.wordpress.com/ At www.economysflaw.wordpress/ you will find over 25 articles, including Zero Inflation Taxation Policy. Is President Obama Making A Mistake, The Means of Exchange, Repeating the Mistakes of The Great Depression. You will find a more detailed copy of the article that appeared in the Bakersfield Californian on Feb. 14, 2011, “Solution To Foreclosures Will Decrease Unemployment And Government Deficit” at www.foreclosuresolution.wordpress.com/ or www.foreclosurecrisissolved.wordpress.com
Thank you for visiting. Please click the Like button, leave a comment, and subscribe so that I can send you new posting, and keep you up to date. Thanks again. Leonard C. Tekaat
If you are unemployed, your home is being foreclosed upon, or are just sick and tired of getting the “shaft“(tax bill to clean up the mess the “big boys” make), join a growing number of people that want to change the guiding polices of our economy to increase opportunities so they can provide for themselves and their families, and provide America a better financial, and societal future. The middle class does not want to become government dependent. We have worked hard to be self-sufficient. If the Financial Institutions and government continue on the path we are on, it will mean the demise of small businesses, and the middle class. We need people that are not afraid to stand up to be heard. To take a proactive position about their future, and the future of their nation. Join the R.E.B.E.L.S. it is free. Please get involved for your children, and their posterity’s future. There is a better way to improve our economy than to put them into debt to the Federal Government, which will ruin their chance at the American Dream of a better future for their posterity. Our e-mail is economysflaw@yahoo.com Connect on www.facebook.com/leonard.c.tekaat/ Our Tweet handle is: “recessionkiller”, join the conversation.
Solution to; Credit Crisis, Housing Bubble, Foreclosures, Recession /Inflation
To my fellow Americans:
Will you support the change to the income tax law contained in the ZERO INFLATION TAXATION POLICY, that will benefit the economy, our nation, and you financially. It will increase the opportunities for you to provide for yourself, and your family.
Please send a copy to President Bush, President Elect Obama, your Representatives in Congress and all your friends and anybody else that can help get the word out.
PREVENTING HOUSING BUBBLES
& GET THE ECONOMY MOVING AGAIN
To get our economy moving again, and prevent another housing bubble, the U.S. Congress needs to change the income tax laws, the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates, which they have done, and the financial institutions must be able to decrease long-term mortgage rates.
Starting mortgage rates should drop 2 to 3%, and stocks should go up as a result of the income tax law changes we are proposing.
There are three things that must be done to lower interest rates, and save our economy. First Congress must make a change to our income tax. Then the Federal Reserve must lower their interest rates to their member banks. They have already done this. The financial institutions then should be able to lower long-term interest rates to the public, after the income tax change is enacted. Mortgage starting interest rates should drop 2 to 3%, and stocks should go up as a result of the changes we are proposing!
The current credit crisis could have been avoided by a change in our income tax laws. We should enact what I call “THE ZERO INFLATION TAXATION POLICY”. This policy is a new way of correcting the current economic crisis, and controlling inflation and inflation psychology in our economy. To halt the fall in housing prices, save the auto industry and put people back to work, mortgage starting interest rates must come down 2 to 3% when the financial institutions restructure the mortgages, at the lower starting mortgages rates, people’s disposable income will increase. The unemployed will be employed and their incomes will increase. Consumer’s conference will rise, and they will start spending money again. Production will increase as people are put back to work. The economy will start working again without a government bailout!
How can we make it possible for the financial institutions to be able to lower there interest rates on long term mortgages? Banks don’t hold mortgages. They sell them to government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The GSEs sell them to investors. We must induce an economic climate so investors are willing to purchase long term bonds that back mortgages, during this economic crisis, and the inflation cycle.
When inflation starts to occur in our economy, the interest deduction, and the tax on interest income must be decreased. This would cause the economy to become more efficient, create more real wealth and strengthen the American dollar in the world money markets. Paper profits will decrease. (Inflationary investments in housing, commodities etc., purchased with credit, that increases in price without making improvements or increasing supply). This change in our tax code would help the Federal Reserve System (Fed) control inflation and maintain employment. The Fed would not have to raise interest rates as high to increase the value of money. We need this tax policy change, before more and more people become government dependent.
I wrote a book titled INFLATION THE ECONOMY KILLER, (>Amazon.com<) which outlined this POLICY. We need a new method of dealing with economic crisis. Our economy has become so big, and electronically sophisticated the old ways no longer work. One of the reasons inflation exist in our economy is that we have made it very profitable. Since inflationary investment income is taxed at 15%, (long-term capital gains tax rate), money investment income, which is taxed currently at up to 35%, is worth 20% less. In fact, to offset the capital gains rate on personal residences which is at 0%, and the home’s annual appreciation rate is 30%, interest rates earned on bonds and bank accounts would have to go all the way up to approx. 45% to have the same rate of return on investment. Is it any wonder that we had a housing bubble, and the Fed couldn’t do any thing about it without destroying the economy?
The Federal Reserve, in the early 1980es, tightened the money supply enough to raise interest rates to 21%. Of course this created a recession, because normal production and consumption cannot continue under these conditions. Many people were thrown into the unemployment lines. Small and large businesses went bankrupt and the government’s responsibilities increased as more people became dependent on welfare. Even though interest rates went up to 21% they were only 100% above the then current inflation rate!
The current mortgage rate as of Dec-2008 is 6%, 600% above the current inflation rate of approximately 0%. The economy cannot work efficiently under these conditions.
A better way to correct the current economic crisis, control inflation psychology, and maintain the value of money is by progressively reducing the interest deduction and the tax on interest income, at the same percentage rate, as inflation increases in our economy.
The balance of our economy would be maintained. Whenever the interest earned on money investments becomes 15% taxable income, money investments would be as valuable as inflationary investments. This POLICY, when used during an inflationary period, would automatically take excess demand out of the market place, slow down the economy and maintain the value of money.
When people try to protect the value of their money from inflation, by investing in inflationary investments, to receive paper profits, they create more debt (money) and more inflation. With the enactment of the “zero inflation taxation policy” normal production and consumption would continue, during the inflation cycle. Demand would be reduced from the top of the economic ladder. Demand in the economy would not be reduced by creating unemployment and bankruptcies of small businesses and the middle class. The economy would have the savings pool (money), at the lowest possible interest rate, it needs to maintain employment and raise the standard of living of all our citizens. Production would have the time it needs to balance supply with normal demand.
The long-term capital gains tax rate would still be in effect but those people who make capital improvements and increase the real wealth of our economy would benefit from its existence. People with money stay invested in money during the inflation cycle, and would not be making inflationary investments, because inflation would not be as profitable, or would they be making investments to protect their money from inflation. Their money would stay in the credit system of our country, supporting increases in production and normal consumption, thus maintaining low interest rates and inflation rates.
The ZERO INFLATION TAXATION POLICY would eliminate inflation psychology without raising interest rates, therefore stabilizing credit cost. This policy would not reward inflationary investment. It would encourage productive investment. It would automatically change our economy from a high credit use, and a decreased saving economy, to a system that encourages money and productive investments during the inflation cycle.
This change is exactly what our country needs right now! We need to be able to lower mortgage starting interest rates without creating another round of inflation, or a housing bubble; commodities, energy/oil bubble. We need a 2 to 3% mortgage starting interest rate drop to restructure primary home mortgages in our economy, and return purchasing power to the consumer to avoid a deep recession.
Continue to read the comments and my replies. There are more details in the replies that you might be interested in.
Feel free to contact me if you need additional information on the book, or for any other reason. The Book INFLATION THE ECONOMY KILLER is available at Amazon.com
Sincerely
Leonard C. Tekaat
Copyright 1992
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| COMMENT # 1 |
| Comment one smitty1: The last thing on earth that we need is a 3% mortgage rate. Housing is a consumer good believe or not. It happens to appreciate, but the bulk of your return is being kept out of the rain. Subsidizing consumption with low interest rates has been at the root of the problem. Your assessment that capital gains derive from inflation is partially true. The rest of it is created from increasing return on fixed investments. Some of my cap gains on Microsoft are inflation; the rest is that it is a great business. Your solution has no way to distinguish between the two.Answer for Comment One happyashell: The reason that long term mortgage starting interest rates need to drop 2 to 3% is to put a floor under housing prices. This is the rate that housing becomes affordable. The inflation rate is 0%. Historically interest rates have been maintained from 20 to 100% above the inflation rate, Currently they are 600% above the inflation rate. The purpose of The Zero Polivy is to change taxation policy automatically as the economy changes from a recession to an inflation cycle, without the Fed or government intervention. As far as the capital gains are concerned, your Microsoft investment is a productive investment. The point is that when the economy enters an inflation cycle, people start making inflationary investments creating more inflation. The use of credit, to leverage these investments, decreases our savings pool for non-productive reasons. |
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| COMMENT # 2 |
| COMMENT TWO Smitty1: Lower interest rates… See Japan circa 1990. We need to (a) increase national productivity, wages (b) increase the return on capital, wealth (c) increase the productivity of housing. Lowering interest rates does nothing other than forces lenders to subsidize people living beyond their means. This isn’t part of the solution. It is the problem. Your solution doesn’t fix housing; it simply lets it deflate more slowly.ANSWER to TWO happyashell: the banks under my proposal do not subsidize The 3% mortgage starting interest rate. The Fed is loaning money to the banks at .25%. If the banks hold on to the mortgage they are marking up their product 12 times cost. That means the banks would be making a 1200% short-term profit with a 3% mortgage rate. As the interest rate go up each year the market value of the mortgage goes up, and the banks will make a profit when they sell it. The 3% rate would increase the number of buyers interested in purchasing a house. The foreclosure inventory would be quickly absorbed. The loan would be a 30yr fixed rate after the first 7 years. (In the 50s we had 4-5% mortgage rates). It would be the banks responsibility to make sure the new buyer could afford the loan. The problem of the excess supply of houses would be solved without a taxpayer bailout. It would not be beneficial at this time to increase the production of housing since we have excess supply, and to little demand. There are two things that can happen to increase demand in an excessive supply situation. Number one; let the price fall until the property becomes affordable or number two; you can lower interest rates until it becomes affordable and then refinance, as much as possible, the entire economy, at a lower rate, to release more purchasing power to increase demand. Continuing to allow the price of housing to fall would cause a complete re-valuation of the economy. Meaning state, county, and cities would lose their tax base. They would have to raise taxes on everybody left standing, borrow money and create civil projects to put money (demand) back into the economy, or layoff thousands of employees, making a recession into a depression. The last four letters in American is I CAN! ….WE CAN DO THIS TOGETHER or as a Nation. When you take out the fear factor and the inflation premium out of interest rates, they will come down. The Zero Inflation Taxation Policy takes care of both of these problems. A great president once said, “The only thing we have to fear, is fear its self.” Smitty, When I say a possible 4% mortgage interest rate, this would be the ideal rate. The markets would have to determine how low the rate could go. I just wanted to point out that the banks would be making a profit based on that source of funds. A lot of money could enter the market place, based on the trillions of dollars of value that have been lost, before inflation would be a problem any time soon. |
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| COMMENT # 3 |
| Comment Three: Smitty1and Bosterd, What is your ideal rate to fix the auto industry? We have lots of unsold cars. Your entire theory is what Allan Greenspan did, and it is the cause of what we are suffering. Lowering interest rates on a consumer good is inflationary. You can call this idea zero inflation just as you can call a boat a banana. This is a subsidy. Subsidies do not create demand, they shift existing demand around. So you will have people in $700,000 houses that can’t afford a cot. Is this really a good idea? On your comment “It would take an additional 50% further drop in housing prices to bring down the 6% monthly payment to equal the 3% monthly payment.” Are you really trying to imply that interest rates are dollar for dollar the same as principal amounts? In your assumption, banks borrow 100% of mortgage funds from the Fed to lock in their interest rate spread of 200%…how do you account for a bank’s oppty cost of being able to invest in anything they want that has a much better return than 3%…. could probably lock in bond values with much better returns and less default risk…. to Smitty’s point, when Greenspan finally steps up and admits that he held interest too low for too long…. how can the assumption be made that it would be good to lower interest rates even further. Inflation isn’t good for the economy, but it is Risk that is the killer. Capitalism as a pet likes to be fed stability and confidence. Risk is sand in the machine. In a micro sense, my lawn guy first got killed by rising oil prices, and now is getting killed by lower oil prices because he can’t adjust his pricing quickly. He can’t reprice down because he knows that oil may rise quickly again. That is a micro. But look at GM; oil prices rise so they shutter an entire plant making SUVs. They retool a plant for high MPG cars, and now Americans don’t want them either. ANSWER to Three happyashell: 6% X $200,000.00=$12,000.00 divided by 12 mo.=1,000.00 mo. Int. payment. 3% X $200,000.00=$6,000.00 divided by 12 mo.=$500.00 mo. Int. payment. $100,000.00 X 6% = $6,000.00 divided by 12 mo =$500.00. Each monthly principle amount is the same, on either monthly payment, to payoff a 30yr fixed rate loan, so that amount would be added to the monthly payment to pay off the loan in 30yrs. On a 30yr loan the first monthly principle amount, subtracted from the balance due, starts out small and increases as the unpaid principle amount decreases and the interest amount decreases. By refinancing the economy at the lower mortgage starting interest rate, consumer’s purchasing power will increase and the economy will start working again. The consumer is a major part of economic activity in the economy. As for the banks seeking higher rates of return; a profit is a profit is a profit. As far as Greenspan’s statement, he was correct in saying he was wrong. He was the Chairman of the Fed and did not realize how important it was that Congress had changed the income tax laws by allowing the capital gains exclusion of $500,000.00 on personal residences. There was no way, unless he had done it in the very beginning of the housing bubble, he could have raised interest rates to overcome the paper profits that the home buyer could make. They were willing to pay ever-higher prices for homes. Even though the investor did not have this exclusion they were making a very good return on their investment. Some of them even lied on their credit applications to obtain the capital gains exclusion. I believe the capital gains rate should apply to all personal residences, to correct this imbalance. The ZERO POLICY would help control the excessive use of credit and low savings rate that occurred now and in the 70es, before the exclusion was enacted. The Fed uses a sledgehammer approach to drive in a tack. The setting of interest rates is not an exact science. Many times the Fed is wrong and the economy (people) is hurt by it. The ZERO POLICY works with the Fed to make the process more accurate.In the 50es the economy was working on a lower interest rate structure.Interest rates were not being subsidized. When President Kennedy was elected he applied Keynesian Economics principles to the economy to end the recession. The Federal Government has continued to do this every time there was a recession. John Maynard Keynes gave us a theory that worked to get the economy back up on its feet, but did not leave a handbook on how to correctly slow down the economy’s boom period, without causing a recession. The ZERO INFLATION TAXATION POLICY offsets all of the stimuli that the Congress has enacted, without their intervention, to bring the economy out of recession, much more smoothly than the Feds high interest policies. High interest policies go to far, causing another recession. The automobile industry will recover as the economy recovers. With interest rates lower, and as people regain their disposable income, they will buy more automobiles. The automobile industry has many new products, they will come out with in the coming years that will change the way we transport ourselves. Out with the old, in with the new! |
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| COMMENT #4 |
| COMMENT Four: Smitty: First, oil price swung because our govt is run by idiots who let it run. Supply and demand works great for widgets. Price rises and demand falls. In the case of necessities, price rises from scarcity create demand. It also shrinks supply. The result is an unstable economic model in which prices rise rapidly, and then collapse. What we saw on oil is called hording, where all of the speculators go to one side of the trade. We don’t agree on what the last 20 years were. It was a liquidity bubble, which you would like to re-create. Liquidity first went into stocks particularly technology, then into housing, then into everything from art to bonds to commodities. You still didn’t answer my question. What is the appropriate interest rate to fix the auto industry? Once you figure that out, you can tell us what the correct interest rate is for retailers – who are in a mess as well. And you aren’t fixing housing, other than by creating a bigger mess in the autos, retailers, and every other sector of the economy that depends upon credit.ANSWER To Four happyashell: I agree with you it was a liquidity bubble that has caused the currant economic crisis. I agree with you that Greenspan maintained interest rates to low for to long. I agree that a lot of people bought houses that they couldn’t afford. The currant system failed us all. I do not want another liquidity bubble to form. You are not considering what the effect will be with the change in the income tax I am purposing. What I also don’t agree with is how government uses the income tax to facilitate an economic recovery and then leaves the peddle to the metal, creating inflation. The main thing I am trying to do is change the way the credit bubble is controlled, before it becomes a bubble. The Fed doesn’t have all the tools it needs to control inflation and maintain employment. It needs the income tax to change as inflation begins to be created. We have gone through the cycles of recession and inflation over and over again. Only a crazy person does the same thing over and over again, if something doesn’t work. If interest rates come down so be it. It is not the main reason I wrote the book and developed the Zero Policy. We have to stop tearing our economy apart and rebuilding it again, over and over again. The currant policies are not efficient. It creates more and more people that are government dependent. The automotive industry is hurting because people have the fear of losing their job and a lack of disposable income. Maintaining a roof over their head is more important than owning a new car. It is not interest rates. The auto dealers have all kinds of low interest rate and rebate programs, yet new cars and trucks are not selling. You are right, high gas prices didn’t help, although lower gas prices haven’t improved things either. On your comment on oil prices; Normal consumption does not cause wide swings in prices as we have seen in the last year, unless you have a major disruption in supply and demand stays the same. This has not happened, only rumors. I think the price of oil is changing so quickly because there is too much money moving in and out of the market. Some of it is caused by the fear, of the devaluation of people’s store of wealth. Leveraged opportunity investors join the fear investors, and then the retail investors join in. Which creates abnormal demand. This is why I support a policy that states if a person wants to invest in commodities they should pay the total amount of the contract with cash, not 5% down and the rest financed. The economy has turned into a game of Musical Chairs. Who is going to end up holding the worthless debt (money)? It is all made up of promises, be it dollars or promissory debt. This is why it is important to keep the economy working, so everyone can keep his or her promises. Investors start the bubble and then every one else joins in to make the paper profits. Every recession since World War Two has been caused by excessive credit use. The Fed does not raise interest rates because of an excessive supply and excessive competition; it raises interest rates to reduce demand. They reduce demand too much, which causes another recession. |
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| COMMENT #5 |
| COMMENT Five Smitty: You have two different ideas here. The Zero Inflation control is theoretical. It assumes that you know what the inflation rate is. Congress tinkers with the rate to an extent that no one really knows what it is. If you had used house prices instead of rental property as a proxy for CPI, the CPI would have been in the double digits rather than the benign rate that has been reported. The real problem that this society has is that we give tax breaks to people who borrow money for business. If you pay a dividend you get zero tax breaks where as if you pay interest it is a deduction. Is it any wonder that we have private equity paying 15 times cash flow entirely paid for with debt? Your solution assumes that you have an almighty person who knows what interest rates should be. It assumes that you know which industries are worth saving and which ones aren’t. For example, a car might be considered as important as the roof when that car gets you to a job that keeps the roof over your head. Whether you start with a genius or not, all systems need to be designed to be run by an idiot because at some point they will be.ANSWER to Five happyashell: Smitty: Were getting close to an understanding between us. Currently the income tax rewards people to do the wrong things at the wrong time in the economic cycle. This is why the Policy automatically changes the income tax as economic conditions change. You are right; the government has tampered with the CPI. It was done when President Regan was in office. They did it so it did not show the real rises in the cost of living. This way, the government programs that are tied to the CPI would not have to increase their benefit payments and the employees could not ask to be paid higher wage, based on the CPI. Just because the government has changed the way it figures the Consumer Price Index, by removing housing and energy cost, does not mean that HIGH INFLATION has not occurred in our economy, in the last 25 years. Marc Faver, the noted author of GLOOM, BOOM and DOOM Financial News Letter, and I agree that the US government does a lot, sometimes to much, to prevent a recession, but very little to control a boom. A boom is more profitable for governments, but it leads to a recession. When the Fed steps in with their HIGH INTEREST RATE POLICY, too late or for too long, THE ECONOMY GOES BUST AGAIN, and thousands of small and large businesses go bankrupt. People lose their jobs, their homes and their hope of a better future. Believe me when I say,” The Fed knows exactly what the inflation rate is”. They even know what it is in each of its twelve districts. |
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| COMMENT #6 |
| COMMENT Six Smitty: I love Marc, and his ponytail. He is the one person most singularly responsible for me staying at arms reach of this mess. While I will agree with what you are saying, I continue to believe that your idea is a theory that can’t be put into practice. Until you have a measure for CPI, you can’t adjust your taxes. I do not agree however that your theory is sound because it fails to promote stability, which is the cornerstone of capital creation. People need to know what their taxes will be for a year. We should remove the incentives for stupidity in the first place rather than adjust them year in and year out.ANSWER To Six happyashell: I believe that we will always have the business cycle. The government uses the income tax to soften the recession. It can also be used to prevent the boom from getting out of hand. The information the Fed receives about the economy is what they now use to set interest rates. It can be used to figure the CPI. The CPI should be as accurate as humanly possible, helped by technology. The number isn’t as important as how it will change the income tax and inflation psychology. As far as a yearly tax is concerned, the adjustment would take place at the end of the year. Based on the inflation rate, the person holding the debt (money) would pay a little less tax, and the person holding the hard capital asset would pay a little more tax. The first having lost value and second having gained valued. In this way the economy would stay in balance. |
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| COMMENT #7 |
| COMMENT Seven Smitty1: The essence of our difference is that you believe that the government is able to manage interest rates. I don’t. I don’t think it justifies the instability that you will introduce by changing tax rates/deductions. People want to know what taxes are/will be before they are willing to invest. The variable component to your idea will hurt the economy more than the management will help. Mind you, like The Glass Stegall Act, your idea will be repealed once it gets in the way of the boom.ANSWER To Seven happyashell: Stable interest rates are more important to the economy than a static income tax system. The Zero Policy will stabilize the long term bond market, which creates a market for home mortgages, On the Federal Reserve Notes it written, “ IN GOD WE TRUST “, it should say, “ IN THE FED WE TRUST”. Yes I believe the Central Banks have the power of life or death over the economies of the world. When a person is earning 4% interest and the Fed raises interest rates 1% the holder of the bond loses up to 25% of its value depending on its maturity date. If the Fed makes a mistake the economy gets into big trouble, as we have now. If the Zero Inflation Taxation Policy is enacted. Investors in long-term bonds and saving accounts will be assured that the interest rates will continue to be low, and the value of their investments will be maintained. The economy will continue to work efficiently. Economic opportunities will continue to be available to everyone. In this way people will be able to provide for themselves and continue their pursuit of happiness. The Zero Policy would only change the income tax after the economy is unbalanced, for whatever reason. The effect on normal production and consumption would be minimal. It is the excesses that I am trying to contain without causing a recession. I am also making Zero Policy automatic, so it takes action before the Fed takes action with higher interest rates. Congress can’t take action fast enough, because it is a politically divided, over 545 member committee. In the beginning of any economic cycle it would take much less action to rebalance the economy, unlike what we have to deal with now. People will still make productive investments. The long-term capital gains tax rate will still be in the income tax code. The only thing I am trying to influence is the people’s attitude toward credit use, money investment and the saving rate when the inflation cycle is starting. Someone has to be willing to hold the debt (money) to finance the increases in production to rebalance supply & demand. We shouldn’t be increasing the money supply at that point in the inflation cycle. Unlike the Fed’s high interest rate policy, the excess demand would be taken out from the top of the economic ladder. People holding money, as their store of wealth, would be more willing to hold onto it and invest in it, because of the changing income tax. This change in the code would help finance the increases in production to rebalance supply and demand. High interest rates take demand out of the economy, from the bottom of the economic ladder, causing all kinds of misery. When more people want to make money investments, and credit demand is down, interest rates come down. The economy would refinance at a lower rate of interest. This is how we can obtain the lowest possible mortgage rate. The market will provide it, if the Fed will let it. We don’t need to “share the wealth,” nor do we need anything to “ trickle down to any able body person,” We need to create people with the ability and maintain the economic opportunities, so people can climb up to what ever level of wealth they can obtain and are comfortable with. If The Zero Inflation Taxation Policy is enacted investors in bonds and saving accounts will be assured that interest rates will continue to be low, and the value of their investments will be maintained. The economy will continue to work efficiently and opportunities will continue to be available for everyone. Copyright for all the replies by happyashell, by Leonard C. Tekaat Dec, 2008 |
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